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SOROS ON CHINA'S ROLE IN NEW WORLD ORDER (Oct. 23, 2009; see above)
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China's Migrants See Jobless Ranks Soar (Wall Street Journal - Feb. 2, 2009)By IAN JOHNSON and ANDREW BATSONSHUANGYAO, China -- The global slowdown is taking a toll on China, claiming the jobs of an estimated 20 million migrant workers and dimming their prospects as they set out in search of work after the New Year holiday. The year ahead appears no more promising: Officials forecast the number of migrants looking for jobs will reach at least 25 million. Chen Xiwen, who heads the Chinese Communist Party's office on rural policy, said Monday that about 20 million migrant workers -- nearly a sixth of the total -- lost their jobs in recent months. That number, the first official estimate, underscores the government's challenge in maintaining employment and avoiding unrest. "For those migrant workers who have lost their jobs, what are they going to do for income when they return to their village? How are they going to manage? This is a new factor affecting social stability this year," Mr. Chen said at a news conference in Beijing. The government estimates the total population of rural migrants -- those working outside their home village -- at approximately 130 million people. China doesn't conduct regular surveys to gauge nationwide unemployment; Mr. Chen's estimate of 20 million job losses covered only migrant workers. He said his figure was based on an official survey in January of migrant workers in 15 provinces, which showed 15.3% of respondents had lost their jobs or been unable to find work. He said the total number of migrants seeking work this year will likely be at least 25 million, since usually six million to seven million people join the migrant work force each year. ![]() China's government worries that if migrants cannot find jobs, they will be a force for unrest. The uncertainty is being felt in Shuangyao, just north of the Yangtze River in central China's Anhui province. Roughly 150 people from this village of 60 families -- or almost all able-bodied adults between ages 20 and 60 -- work elsewhere, in cities such as Beijing or factory towns in China's export hub, the Pearl River Delta. The Lunar New Year holiday, which officially ended Saturday, is the main annual opportunity for these workers to reunite with family and take stock of the year. In Shuangyao, this year's celebration was far more subdued than in the past, residents said. Firecrackers, which on the new year's eve once went on all night, stopped shortly after midnight. About a quarter of the village's migrants didn't even make it home -- mainly because they had lost their jobs, and were unable to afford the trip or loath to show up with bad news. Search for JobsThis week, migrants are setting out to look for jobs. How much work is available -- and how the government handles the disappointment of those who can't find any -- will help determine how much the crisis strains China's system. "Without our work, this village would have nothing," says Ye Guangzhao, who sells grain and seeds in neighboring Jiangxi province. "We have to go back out and find something." Shuangyao's migrant workers each send home between $1,400 and $2,000 a year. Without that, those remaining behind -- mostly children and grandparents -- couldn't afford things such as school fees, extra clothing or television. Below Photo -- A policeman gives directions at China's Fuyang Railway Station, where thousands of migrant workers returned during the New Year holiday. ![]() Farming isn't really an option, because Shuangyao is massively overpopulated. The average family's landholding is just two mu, or about a third of an acre, enough that a family can usually survive off their harvest, but not to provide any real cash income.
Consequently, few migrants feel they can stay. Ye Xiangbin, a 24-year-old demobilized soldier, used to work in a factory making shoes for export, but lost his job when his Taiwanese bosses closed shop late last year. Depressed, he came back home a few months early for the festival, but next week he will set out again in hopes that conditions have improved. "I will try it for a few months. I have no choice," Mr. Ye said.
Government efforts have helped to alleviate poverty in Shuangyao. Last year, a dirt path to the local town was paved, allowing motorbikes to cut an hourlong walk to a 12-minute ride. Rural taxes have been cut and a rural health plan is being implemented. Estimates in China put the number of protests each year in the tens of thousands, although most are quickly defused by authorities. The current downturn, however, is the most serious since 1989, when a weak economy helped to spur the Tiananmen Square democracy protests. Focus on LayoffsCentral-government officials have in recent weeks asked companies to avoid layoffs if at all possible, and have stepped up subsidies and training programs directed at migrant workers. The government is also stepping up monitoring of job losses, since China's official unemployment statistics don't cover migrant workers and hence have shown little change despite the economic turmoil. Mr. Chen, the Chinese official in Beijing, appealed to local government leaders to handle any protests personally and avoid using force. "If a mass incident occurs, leading cadres must all go to the front line, and talk to the people directly, face-to-face, to explain things and convince them," Mr. Chen said. Residents in Shuangyao say they don't blame the government for the downturn -- but do expect officials to act to turn it around. Ken Roberts, a professor at Southwestern University in Texas who studies Chinese migrants, says the rising unemployment among rural workers could exacerbate problems in the countryside, such as illegal taxation of farmers and local corruption. "The burden is going to be higher on people, so they may have less tolerance for these existing problems," Mr. Roberts says. Local governments across rural China have set up programs to encourage migrants to open businesses and other enterprises, hoping that this will soak up labor that the country's once-booming coasts cannot. In Shuangyao, this doesn't seem an option. Farmers say poverty is too widespread for a business to gain traction. "There's no way not to leave the village," says Wu Luo, a 35-year-old construction worker who has been a migrant laborer since leaving school at 16. "The conditions here are too poor and there's nothing for us to do." Write to Ian Johnson at ian.johnson@wsj.com and Andrew Batson at andrew.batson@wsj.com |
Additional Content Pending...
Esoteric Agenda |
Kymatica |
Zeitgeist, The Movie - Remastered / Final Edition
(1) NWO Links (Click Here) ; (2) Plato's Cave; (3) Phenomenology of Mind/Spirit; (4) Brave New World
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RING OF POWER / EMPIRE OF THE CITY* - PART 2 of 2: |
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Article #1 - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-01/how-to-make-an-american-job-before-it-s-too-late-andy-grove.html
How to Make an American Job Before It's Too Late: Andy Grove
By Andy Grove - Jul 1, 2010

Andrew "Andy" Grove, co-founder and senior adviser to Intel Corp., listens during an interview in his office in Los Altos, California. Photographer: Tony Avelar/Bloomberg News
Recently an acquaintance at the next table in a Palo Alto, California, restaurant introduced me to his companions: three young venture capitalists from China. They explained, with visible excitement, that they were touring promising companies in Silicon Valley. I’ve lived in the Valley a long time, and usually when I see how the region has become such a draw for global investments, I feel a little proud.
Not this time. I left the restaurant unsettled. Something didn’t add up. Bay Area unemployment is even higher than the 9.7 percent national average. Clearly, the great Silicon Valley innovation machine hasn’t been creating many jobs of late -- unless you are counting Asia, where American technology companies have been adding jobs like mad for years.
The underlying problem isn’t simply lower Asian costs. It’s our own misplaced faith in the power of startups to create U.S. jobs. Americans love the idea of the guys in the garage inventing something that changes the world. New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman recently encapsulated this view in a piece called “Start-Ups, Not Bailouts.” His argument: Let tired old companies that do commodity manufacturing die if they have to. If Washington really wants to create jobs, he wrote, it should back startups.
Mythical Moment
Friedman is wrong. Startups are a wonderful thing, but they cannot by themselves increase tech employment. Equally important is what comes after that mythical moment of creation in the garage, as technology goes from prototype to mass production. This is the phase where companies scale up. They work out design details, figure out how to make things affordably, build factories, and hire people by the thousands. Scaling is hard work but necessary to make innovation matter.
The scaling process is no longer happening in the U.S. And as long as that’s the case, plowing capital into young companies that build their factories elsewhere will continue to yield a bad return in terms of American jobs.
Scaling used to work well in Silicon Valley. Entrepreneurs came up with an invention. Investors gave them money to build their business. If the founders and their investors were lucky, the company grew and had an initial public offering, which brought in money that financed further growth.
Intel Startup
I am fortunate to have lived through one such example. In 1968, two well-known technologists and their investor friends anted up $3 million to start Intel Corp., making memory chips for the computer industry. From the beginning, we had to figure out how to make our chips in volume. We had to build factories; hire, train and retain employees; establish relationships with suppliers; and sort out a million other things before Intel could become a billion-dollar company. Three years later, it went public and grew to be one of the biggest technology companies in the world. By 1980, which was 10 years after our IPO, about 13,000 people worked for Intel in the U.S.
Not far from Intel’s headquarters in Santa Clara, California, other companies developed. Tandem Computers Inc. went through a similar process, then Sun Microsystems Inc., Cisco Systems Inc., Netscape Communications Corp., and on and on. Some companies died along the way or were absorbed by others, but each survivor added to the complex technological ecosystem that came to be called Silicon Valley.
As time passed, wages and health-care costs rose in the U.S., and China opened up. American companies discovered they could have their manufacturing and even their engineering done cheaper overseas. When they did so, margins improved. Management was happy, and so were stockholders. Growth continued, even more profitably. But the job machine began sputtering.
U.S. Versus China
Today, manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is about 166,000 -- lower than it was before the first personal computer, the MITS Altair 2800, was assembled in 1975. Meanwhile, a very effective computer-manufacturing industry has emerged in Asia, employing about 1.5 million workers -- factory employees, engineers and managers.
The largest of these companies is Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., also known as Foxconn. The company has grown at an astounding rate, first in Taiwan and later in China. Its revenue last year was $62 billion, larger than Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Dell Inc. or Intel. Foxconn employs more than 800,000 people, more than the combined worldwide head count of Apple, Dell, Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard Co., Intel and Sony Corp.
10-to-1 Ratio
Until a recent spate of suicides at Foxconn’s giant factory complex in Shenzhen, China, few Americans had heard of the company. But most know the products it makes: computers for Dell and HP, Nokia Oyj cell phones, Microsoft Xbox 360 consoles, Intel motherboards, and countless other familiar gadgets. Some 250,000 Foxconn employees in southern China produce Apple’s products. Apple, meanwhile, has about 25,000 employees in the U.S. -- that means for everyApple worker in the U.S. there are 10 people in China working on iMacs, iPods and iPhones. The same roughly 10-to-1 relationship holds for Dell, disk-drive maker Seagate Technology, and other U.S. tech companies.
You could say, as many do, that shipping jobs overseas is no big deal because the high-value work -- and much of the profits -- remain in the U.S. That may well be so. But what kind of a society are we going to have if it consists of highly paid people doing high-value-added work -- and masses of unemployed?
Since the early days of Silicon Valley, the money invested in companies has increased dramatically, only to produce fewer jobs. Simply put, the U.S. has become wildly inefficient at creating American tech jobs. We may be less aware of this growing inefficiency, however, because our history of creating jobs over the past few decades has been spectacular -- masking our greater and greater spending to create each position.
Tragic Mistake
Should we wait and not act on the basis of early indicators? I think that would be a tragic mistake because the only chance we have to reverse the deterioration is if we act early and decisively.
Already the decline has been marked. It may be measured by way of a simple calculation: an estimate of the employment cost- effectiveness of a company. First, take the initial investment plus the investment during a company’s IPO. Then divide that by the number of employees working in that company 10 years later. For Intel, this worked out to be about $650 per job -- $3,600 adjusted for inflation. National Semiconductor Corp., another chip company, was even more efficient at $2,000 per job.
Making the same calculations for a number of Silicon Valley companies shows that the cost of creating U.S. jobs grew from a few thousand dollars per position in the early years to $100,000 today. The obvious reason: Companies simply hire fewer employees as more work is done by outside contractors, usually in Asia.
Alternative Energy
The job-machine breakdown isn’t just in computers. Consider alternative energy, an emerging industry where there is plenty of innovation. Photovoltaics, for example, are a U.S. invention. Their use in home-energy applications was also pioneered by the U.S.
Last year, I decided to do my bit for energy conservation and set out to equip my house with solar power. My wife and I talked with four local solar firms. As part of our due diligence, I checked where they get their photovoltaic panels -- the key part of the system. All the panels they use come from China. A Silicon Valley company sells equipment used to manufacture photo-active films. They ship close to 10 times more machines to China than to manufacturers in the U.S., and this gap is growing. Not surprisingly, U.S. employment in the making of photovoltaic films and panels is perhaps 10,000 -- just a few percent of estimated worldwide employment.
Advanced Batteries
There’s more at stake than exported jobs. With some technologies, both scaling and innovation take place overseas. Such is the case with advanced batteries. It has taken years and many false starts, but finally we are about to witness mass- produced electric cars and trucks. They all rely on lithium-ion batteries. What microprocessors are to computing, batteries are to electric vehicles. Unlike with microprocessors, the U.S. share of lithium-ion battery production is tiny.
That’s a problem. A new industry needs an effective ecosystem in which technology knowhow accumulates, experience builds on experience, and close relationships develop between supplier and customer. The U.S. lost its lead in batteries 30 years ago when it stopped making consumer-electronics devices. Whoever made batteries then gained the exposure and relationships needed to learn to supply batteries for the more demanding laptop PC market, and after that, for the even more demanding automobile market. U.S. companies didn’t participate in the first phase and consequently weren’t in the running for all that followed. I doubt they will ever catch up.
Job Creation
Scaling isn’t easy. The investments required are much higher than in the invention phase. And funds need to be committed early, when not much is known about the potential market. Another example from Intel: The investment to build a silicon manufacturing plant in the 1970s was a few million dollars. By the early 1990s, the cost of the factories that would be able to produce the new Pentium chips in volume rose to several billion dollars. The decision to build these plants needed to be made years before we knew whether the Pentium chip would work or whether the market would be interested in it.
Lessons we learned from previous missteps helped us. Years earlier, when Intel’s business consisted of making memory chips, we hesitated to add manufacturing capacity, not being sure about the market demand in years to come. Our Japanese competitors didn’t hesitate: They built the plants. When the demand for memory chips exploded, the Japanese roared into the U.S. market and Intel began its descent as a memory-chip supplier.
Intel Experience
Though steeled by that experience, I remember how afraid I was as I asked the Intel directorsfor authorization to spend billions of dollars for factories to make a product that didn’t exist at the time for a market we couldn’t size. Fortunately, they gave their OK even as they gulped. The bet paid off.
My point isn’t that Intel was brilliant. The company was founded at a time when it was easier to scale domestically. For one thing, China wasn’t yet open for business. More importantly, the U.S. hadn’t yet forgotten that scaling was crucial to its economic future.
How could the U.S. have forgotten? I believe the answer has to do with a general undervaluing of manufacturing -- the idea that as long as “knowledge work” stays in the U.S., it doesn’t matter what happens to factory jobs. It’s not just newspaper commentators who spread this idea.
Offshore Production
Consider this passage by Princeton University economist Alan S. Blinder: “The TV manufacturing industry really started here, and at one point employed many workers. But as TV sets became ‘just a commodity,’ their production moved offshore to locations with much lower wages. And nowadays the number of television sets manufactured in the U.S. is zero. A failure? No, a success.”
I disagree. Not only did we lose an untold number of jobs, we broke the chain of experience that is so important in technological evolution. As happened with batteries, abandoning today’s “commodity” manufacturing can lock you out of tomorrow’s emerging industry.
Our fundamental economic beliefs, which we have elevated from a conviction based on observation to an unquestioned truism, is that the free market is the best economic system -- the freer, the better. Our generation has seen the decisive victory of free-market principles over planned economies. So we stick with this belief, largely oblivious to emerging evidence that while free markets beat planned economies, there may be room for a modification that is even better.
No. 1 Objective
Such evidence stares at us from the performance of several Asian countries in the past few decades. These countries seem to understand that job creation must be the No. 1 objective of state economic policy. The government plays a strategic role in setting the priorities and arraying the forces and organization necessary to achieve this goal.
The rapid development of the Asian economies provides numerous illustrations. In a thorough study of the industrial development of East Asia, Robert Wade of the London School of Economics found that these economies turned in precedent- shattering economic performances over the 1970s and 1980s in large part because of the effective involvement of the government in targeting the growth of manufacturing industries.
Consider the “Golden Projects,” a series of digital initiatives driven by the Chinese government in the late 1980s and 1990s. Beijing was convinced of the importance of electronic networks -- used for transactions, communications and coordination -- in enabling job creation, particularly in the less developed parts of the country. Consequently, the Golden Projects enjoyed priority funding. In time, they contributed to the rapid development of China’s information infrastructure and the country’s economic growth.
Job-Centric Economy
How do we turn such Asian experience into intelligent action here and now? Long term, we need a job-centric economic theory -- and job-centric political leadership -- to guide our plans and actions. In the meantime, consider some basic thoughts from a onetime factory guy.
Silicon Valley is a community with a strong tradition of engineering, and engineers are a peculiar breed. They are eager to solve whatever problems they encounter. If profit margins are the problem, we go to work on margins, with exquisite focus. Each company, ruggedly individualistic, does its best to expand efficiently and improve its own profitability. However, our pursuit of our individual businesses, which often involves transferring manufacturing and a great deal of engineering out of the country, has hindered our ability to bring innovations to scale at home. Without scaling, we don’t just lose jobs -- we lose our hold on new technologies. Losing the ability to scale will ultimately damage our capacity to innovate.
Blade Didn’t Drop
The story comes to mind of an engineer who was to be executed by guillotine. The guillotine was stuck, and custom required that if the blade didn’t drop, the condemned man was set free. Before this could happen, the engineer pointed with excitement to a rusty pulley, and told the executioner to apply some oil there. Off went his head.
We got to our current state as a consequence of many of us taking actions focused on our own companies’ next milestones. An example: Five years ago, a friend joined a large VC firm as a partner. His responsibility was to make sure that all the startups they funded had a “China strategy,” meaning a plan to move what jobs they could to China. He was going around with an oil can, applying drops to the guillotine in case it was stuck. We should put away our oil cans. VCs should have a partner in charge of every startup’s “U.S. strategy.”
Financial Incentives
The first task is to rebuild our industrial commons. We should develop a system of financial incentives: Levy an extra tax on the product of offshored labor. (If the result is a trade war, treat it like other wars -- fight to win.) Keep that money separate. Deposit it in the coffers of what we might call the Scaling Bank of the U.S. and make these sums available to companies that will scale their American operations. Such a system would be a daily reminder that while pursuing our company goals, all of us in business have a responsibility to maintain the industrial base on which we depend and the society whose adaptability -- and stability -- we may have taken for granted.
I fled Hungary as a young man in 1956 to come to the U.S. Growing up in the Soviet bloc, I witnessed first-hand the perils of both government overreach and a stratified population. Most Americans probably aren’t aware that there was a time in this country when tanks and cavalry were massed on Pennsylvania Avenue to chase away the unemployed. It was 1932; thousands of jobless veterans were demonstrating outside the White House. Soldiers with fixed bayonets and live ammunition moved in on them, and herded them away from the White House. In America! Unemployment is corrosive. If what I’m suggesting sounds protectionist, so be it.
Choice Is Simple
Every day, that Palo Alto restaurant where I met the Chinese venture capitalists is full of technology executives and entrepreneurs. Many of them are my friends. I understand the technological challenges they face, along with the financial pressure they are under from directors and shareholders. Can we expect them to take on yet another assignment, to work on behalf of a loosely defined community of companies, employees, and employees yet to be hired? To do so is undoubtedly naive. Yet the imperative for change is real and the choice is simple. If we want to remain a leading economy, we change on our own, or change will continue to be forced upon us.
(Andy Grove, senior adviser to Intel, was the company’s chief executive officer or chairman from 1987 until 2005. The opinions expressed, featured in the July 5 issue of Bloomberg Businessweek, are his own.)
For Related News and Information: Top technology stories: TTOP <GO> News on the U.S. labor market: TNI US LABOR <GO> News on the U.S. economy: NI USECO <GO> Bloomberg Businessweek: BUSW <GO>
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Peter Thottam (JD MBA)
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(2) Job growth is short on vigor
Labor report another indication that economic recovery losing steam
By MICHAEL POWELL New York Times
Pasted from <http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/7092496.html#none>
July 2, 2010, 10:37PM
The train that is the nation's economic recovery has slowed noticeably, unable to generate enough jobs in the last two months to keep pace with population growth, much less reduce the vast numbers of unemployed Americans.
The United States added just 83,000 private sector jobs in June, according to the monthly statistical snapshot released by the Labor Department. The unemployment rate declined to 9.5 percent, from 9.7 percent in May. That was a largely illusory decline, as 652,000 Americans left the work force.
Overall, the nation lost 125,000 jobs in June, but those losses came as temporary federal census workers headed for the exits.
After the report, the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 46 points Friday for its seventh straight loss and its longest slide since October 2008. The Dow and other major indexes posted big losses for a second straight week. Crude oil lost 81 cents to $72.14 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
With the economy slowing — housing sales plummeted, while earnings and hours worked ticked downward last month - the stakes grow larger. The next few unemployment reports will unfold during the run-up to the midterm congressional elections this fall.\
Even longtime optimists pulled in their horns a touch. While they pointedly distanced themselves from those economists who worry about a double-dip recession, or a stagnant and lost decade, enthusiasm was hard to detect.
"Obviously, it was a disappointing report," said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group. "And it comes on top of a whole lot of other economic indicators that painted a bleak picture for the country."
Baumohl predicted that this report would add fuel to the fiery debate between deficit hawks and pump-primers. He favored government intervention, but he tends toward the view that it no longer makes as much difference.
"Government spending prevented the U.S. economy from tipping into a depression," he said. "But beyond that, the government cannot, short of war, get private companies to increase hiring if they don't want to."
Just as May's jobs report appeared deceptively robust, swollen by 411,000 workers hired by the federal government to help with the U.S. Census, so the June report appears deceptively anemic, as the government shed 225,000 of those workers.
Signs of strength could be spotted. The 83,000 private sector jobs created in June more than doubled the count in May.
President Barack Obama offered restrained applause for the jobs report even as he acknowledged the economy remained weak.
"We are headed in the right direction," Obama said. "We're not headed there fast enough."
Indeed, the economy needs to add 130,000 jobs each month just to keep pace with new workers entering the market. The labor pool is packed with 15 million Americans seeking work, and state and local governments cut another 10,000 jobs in June.
The weeks leading up to Friday's report offered a grim rat-a-tat-tat of statistics pointing to a slowing economy. Auto sales fell, housing sales plunged, and unemployment claims rose to a peak higher than is normal for an economic recovery.
And Friday's labor data offered many more signs of slippage. The labor-force participation rate - that is, the number of workers counted as participating in the economy - fell by 0.3 percentage point. And the picture remained grim for the long-term unemployed. The median duration of unemployment rose to 25.5 weeks in June, from 23.2 in May.\
More Americans are being left behind. In June, about 2.6 million people were marginally attached to the labor force, a rise of 415,000 from a year earlier. This means they are not counted in the unemployment numbers, but they have looked during the last year and want jobs.
The overall unemployment rate, incorporating all such Americans, stood at 16.5 percent [Note: This is the NY Times number for US National Unemployment. The official Burea of Labor Statistics U-6 unemployment number -- the broadest guage of unemployment -- now put the national U.S. U-6 unemployment at rate at 23%].
*c 2010 - Pete Thottam (All Rights Reserved)*